Monday, March 5, 2018

How a Research Hypothesis Becomes a Theory


How a Research Hypothesis Becomes a Theory

The scientific method attempts to explain the natural occurrences (phenomena) of the universe by using a logical, consistent, systematic method of investigation, information (data) collection, data analysis (hypothesis), testing (experiment), and refinement to arrive at a well-tested, well-documented, explanation that is well-supported by evidence, called a theory.    The process of establishing a new scientific theory is necessarily a grueling one; new theories must survive an adverse gauntlet of skeptics who are experts in their particular area of science; the original theory may then need to be revised to satisfy those objections.  The typical way in which new scientific ideas are debated are through refereed scientific journals, such as Nature and Scientific American.  (Depending upon the area of science, there are many other journals specific to their respective fields that act as referees.)   Before a new theory can be officially proposed to the scientific community, it must be well-written, documented and submitted to an appropriate scientific journal for publication.  If the editors of these prestigious publications accept a research article for publication, they are signaling that the proposed theory has enough merit to be seriously debated and scrutinized closely by experts in that particular field of science.  Skeptics or proponents of alternative or opposing theories may then try to submit their research and data, while the original proponents of the proposed theory may publish new data that answers the skeptics.  It may take many years of often acrimonious debate to settle an issue, resulting in the adoption, modification, or rejection of a new theory.  For example, the Alvarez Meteorite Impact theory (a 6-mile wide meteorite struck the earth 65 million years ago, ending the Cretaceous Period and causing extinction of the dinosaurs), was first proposed in 1979, and took about 10 years of debate before winning over the majority of earth scientists.
          A successful scientific inquiry may culminate in a well-tested, well-documented explanation (theory) that is supported overwhelmingly by valid data, and often has the power to predict the outcome of certain scenarios, which may be tested by future experiments.  There are rare examples of scientific theories that have successfully survived all known attacks for a very long time, and are called scientific laws, such as Newton's Law of Gravity.
    Below is a generalized sequence of steps taken to establish a theory
1.     Choose and define the natural phenomenon that you want to figure out and explain.
2.     Collect information (data) about this phenomena by going where the phenomena occur and making observations.  Or, try to replicate this phenomena by means of a test (experiment) under controlled conditions (usually in a laboratory) that eliminates interference's from environmental conditions.
3.     After collecting a lot of data, look for patterns in the data.   Attempt to explain these patterns by making a provisional explanation, called a hypothesis.
4.     Test the hypothesis by collecting more data to see if the hypothesis continues to show the assumed pattern.  If the data does not support the hypothesis, it must be changed, or rejected in favor of a better one.  In collecting data, one must NOT ignore data that contradicts the hypothesis in favor of only supportive data.  If a refined hypothesis survives all attacks on it and is the best existing explanation for a particular phenomenon, it is then elevated to the status of a theory.
5.     A theory is subject to modification and even rejection if there is overwhelming evidence that disproves it and/or supports another, better theory.   Therefore, a theory is not an eternal or perpetual truth.
Characteristics of a Scientific Theory

Although there are many characteristics of scientific theories, there are five basic characteristics that can help one to understand how they work. A scientific theory should be:
1.      Testable: Theories can be supported through a series of scientific research projects or experiments. Sometimes a theory is proven to be wrong through evidence: this is called rejecting a theory. However, a theory can never be proven to be absolutely true because it is an interpretation. There is always a possibility that a different interpretation will someday be found to be more correct.
2.      Replicable: In other words, theories must also be able to be repeated by others. This means that enough information and data must be available in the theory so that others can test the theory and get similar results.
3.      Stable: Another characteristic of theories is that they must be stable. This means that when others test the theory, they get the same results - so a theory is valid as long as there is no evidence to dispute it.
4.      Simple: A theory should be simple. When it is said, a scientific theory must be simple, that does not mean that the concept must be basic. It means that only useful information should be presented in the theory.
5.      Consistent: A theory should agree with other theories, meaning that no principles in one theory should contradict another already accepted theory. However, some differences may be evident because the new theory may provide additional evidence.
Theories are used to advance scientific knowledge. Without theories, information that is gathered in research studies could not be put to use. New medications and treatments could not be tested, and no cures for diseases would be found.




References:
·        Saravanavel P. (1999), “Research Methodology”, Kitab Mahal, Allahabad, pp-75-77.
·        Swain, A.K.P.C (2008), “A text book of Research Methodology”, Kalyani Publishers, NewDelhi, pp-
·        Tripathi P. C (1999), “A text book of Research Methodology in Social Sciences”, Sultanchand & sons Educational Publishers,  New Delhi, pp-14-15.
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